McCain pins last hopes on Pennsylvania

“Character matters to me. Everyone says it but its true: gays, guns and god usually set my vote.” Harry Tucker is from York County, a reliably Republican part of Pennsylvania. He voted for Bush both times but is now leaning towards voting for Barack Obama. “This election is different – I could lose my job if things get much worse. I’m not sure I can afford to vote for McCain.”

Pennsylvania is a state that usually gets hit first when the economy slows. Harry lives in the middle of the state which is largely rural with considerable pockets of deprivation. The city of Pittsburgh to the west used to be an engine of manufacturing industry for the country but as a result of outsourcing it has relatively high unemployment. To the east is Philadelphia with its expansive suburbs where families are feeling the direct pain of the subprime housing collapse.

Michael Anchorage works in Philly and earns a modest wage but worries about losing his home. Three homes have been repossessed in his area in the last few months. “How has this happened? We could lose our home. President Bush gave tax cuts to the rich, spent more money than the government had and didn’t stop the people on Wall Street taking risks with my money. I honestly don’t think the Republicans can fix it – they caused it.” Michael is now campaigning for Obama.

The economy has changed this election. The events of the last month have shifted voter’s attention away from "character issues" that have dominated recent elections and made them think about their jobs and homes. And this can only be a good thing for Obama. Pennsylvania is a must win state for the Democrats but it has caused Obama difficulties before. Hillary Clinton pounded him here in the primaries for not connecting with working class America and he has had some problems convincing these white working class men, like Harry, to support him.

Polls now show that he is sealing the deal with these all important voters, and not just in Pennsylvania. As the economy has gone down hill, Obama’s numbers have gone up. Nationally, the reliable CNN poll of polls gives Obama an eight per cent advantage over McCain and in Pennsylvania Obama has a ten point lead over McCain. But polls in the "keystone state" have a reputation for being wildly misleading. Both Democratic and Republican internal polls last week showed the state near neck and neck. It’s true that Pennsylvania has voted for a Democrat for the last twenty years, but never decisively. No Democrat since 1964 has ever won the state with more than 51 per cent.

Republican strategists have been quoted saying that they believe McCain is just the sort of Republican—with his appeal to independents—who can steal Pennsylvania from the Democrats. They point out that if they can take only 2,000 votes from the Democrats in every county then he can win the keystone state’s 21 electoral college votes which could very well put McCain in the White House.

This will be tough given that the economic climate is hurting Republicans and pinning hopes of winning on a historically Democratic state is a risky strategy. But if you wanted proof of McCain’s effort then look at how he is spending his money. He has already spent $9m on adverts in Philly alone and nearly $20m across the state. Between the campaigns $50m has been spent in the state – more than anywhere else.

The Obama campaign in Pennsylvania reminds reporters that the registration of Democrats is twice that of Republicans and that their ground effort is considerable. Philadelphia is a big student city and Obama’s campaign has done a solid job of registering young voters. But the Democrats know the importance of the state: “If we don’t win this state it probably means that we’ve lost the election. We need to win here.”

An unknown is what impact Obama’s race will have on voter’s decisions. In 2006 a black candidate, Harold Ford, ran for a senate seat in Tennessee and had a commanding poll lead running up to election day. Exit polls indicated that voters weren’t influenced by race and everyone expected the Ford to win. Ford was decisively beaten in that election.

The attitude in the UK is that this election is decided – it is assumed that Barack Obama will be America’s next President. But it is worth remembering that Reagan was stuck ten points behind Carter in the ‘80s and on the day of the election in 2000 Gore was six points ahead of Bush. We all know what happened next. Obama is the favourite but this election is still far from certain.

It isn’t worth much, but here’s my prediction: if McCain wins Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida then he will win the election. And this scenario is not unimaginable. On the other hand, when you are watching the results come in remember this: if Obama wins Pennsylvania and either Ohio or Florida it will be over for the Republican hopeful.