Politics, peace and pounds in Northern Ireland

Since the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, the changes in Northern Ireland have been nothing short of profound. In almost eleven years of post-Agreement politics, the province has wrestled itself from the grip of a protracted, internal armed conflict and, to quote the Lonely Planet Guide, become "one of the last great undiscovered corners of Europe."

Indeed, with Northern Ireland having reached its most "stable" period (both socially and politically) in modern times, the lessons of the Northern Irish peace process provide both optimism and hope for other societies engaged in conflict. With devolved governance managing a public infrastructure to match that of any Western democracy, the Sisyphean task of transforming the country is nudging ever closer to the summit.

Even the vexed issue of policing, which for many lay at the heart of the Troubles, has almost been resolved. With policing over the years having acted as meta-bargaining as to the very nature of the struggle, the progress in ten years of police reform has resolved almost 90 years of conflict. However, within the modern climate of fiscal constraint, it is important to remember that such transformation has not been without its cost. And while it would be naive, if not irresponsible, to attempt to put a price on the social, political and economic benefits of the broader peace process, it is vital to look at the politics of modern spending restrictions from the unique perspective of Northern Ireland.

In no uncertain terms, the days of "blank cheque politics" in Northern Ireland have been well and truly consigned to the annals of Stormont. Indeed, Northern Ireland is not immune from economic downtown or new public management by virtue of its novel political status. In spite of lingering political differences between the respective nationalist/republican and unionist/loyalist parties, reliance upon the Northern Ireland Office (NIO) to spend its way out of the Troubles can no longer be sustained. And while the NIO does not have its own An Bord Snip (the amusingly titled expenditure review committee of the Irish Government), the moment of truth will arrive by way of Gordon Brown’s imminent budget.

But as part of the changes due to global economic shifts, it is important to revisit the local context (and peculiarities) of Northern Ireland in terms of where it has come from and what it must move towards as part of such financial realignments. If Northern Ireland could be somewhere else, it would probably be a former communist country in eastern Europe. With 70 per cent of the economy dependent upon public sector expenditure, combined with almost 30 per cent more per capita spending than the rest of the United Kingdom, the netherworld of the Northern Ireland’s Soviet-like landscape has provided a degree of insulation from the real would of government spending retrenchment.

However, there are a number of intractable issues bound up in the legacy of the conflict which have necessitated such spending in the first place. To begin with , it was never in the interests of the post-conflict fragility following on from the 1998 Agreement for the economy to flounder. With Stormont politicians regularly commuting to the USA to bolster the tried and tested investment channels, it represents the importance of not giving the paramilitaries the opportunity to capitalise on the potential disaffection created by a failing economy. Furthermore, the continued—and, in many cases worsening—sectarian division in Northern Ireland is a problem to which Stormont has yet to find a solution.

While the so-called peace process has progressed significantly, recalcitrant elements on both sides of the political divide continue to limit the extent to which such progress can be mirrored on the ground. From segregated housing, schools, healthcare, leisure facilities and even shopping amenities, the estimated fiscal burden for duplicate services to Protestant and Catholic communities runs at £1 billion per year – before even beginning to consider the long-term social consequences.

Lastly, the de facto dissident terrorist threat, which the chief constable has admitted is at its highest level since the Good Friday Agreement, represents yet another drain on the public purse. With over £1 billion of expenditure necessary for the policing institutions of Northern Ireland—which is also bound up in the police reform process—it is hard to reconcile "normal" spending levels with the reality on the ground. Looking beyond the need for such expenditure per se, Liam Clarke of the Sunday Times has captured the essence of the relationship between the politicians of Northern Ireland and the British Exchequer, describing them as "chuggers" – amalgamating "charity" and "mugger" to reflect how local politicians have peddled the prospect of potential disaster should Westminster not pay up and fund the measures required in Northern Ireland.

Yet it seems that this has been seen for many years as a price worth paying to keep the peace. As the chuggers rattle their tins, the luxury of time has been an added extra which the British government has been prepared to allow as part of the price of peace. Indeed, institutional inertia within the devolved Assembly appears to come as standard with any policy debate. While Labour have scrambled to draft legislation, stave off recession and bolster the economy, the urgency of the financial crisis has been lost in the peculiarity of Northern Ireland’s financial netherworld. With the local economy still continuing to crumble in many key areas, ministers in the Assembly still concern themselves with the minutiae of Gaelic or English logos on council workers uniforms as part of their playground politics – a strategy that is eating into valuable ministerial time, which could be far more usefully spent. When the province’s own environment minister claims that the focus on climate change is merely a tax ruse by the Labour government, it beggars belief that the chuggers can still run the country; yet with a significant political element continuing to subscribe to what is locally termed "the flat earth society", they still hold sway.

But their tactic is not the silver bullet it once was. In attempting to gaze into the future of Northern Ireland’s long peace, there is still one certainty amid the confusion of politics and societal and economic uncertainty – namely that the country’s future remains inextricably tied to its past. With myriad complex issues bound up in the nature of the conflict, there are many questions which can not and should not be influenced by the quick-fix culture of political point scoring, whatever the economic climate. While the credit crunch may be squeezing the government departments in Westminster, the local government of Northern Ireland is still a special case.

While some might anticipate opposing political parties being forced to work more closely as part of an economically induced Durkheimian solidarity, in reality the recession may have an opposite effect. As part of the fledgling administration in Northern Ireland, such a squeeze may actually magnify differences between departments due to the fact they are controlled by opposing political parties, not majority Government. Politics in Northern Ireland retains many fault lines, of which the economy is but one with the potential to bring down power sharing arrangements. Other divisive and key issues such as dealing with the legacy of the past, historical investigations, a Bill of Rights, and devolved policing and justice powers all lurk with intent on a daily and contested basis as part of the political landscape.

In many ways, some of these key aspirational issues related to Northern Ireland becoming a "normal" society are only the tip of the iceberg. The majority of those aspirations, and especially crucial ones such as policing, have yet to be fully grasped in terms of the dichotomy posed by autonomous governance versus autonomous budgeting for the polity. While the need for Northern Ireland to deal with its own intractable problems is evident, it is the economic feasibility which raises questions within the current financial climate. And until firm solutions can be agreed, delivered and paid for with the currency of locally crafted consensus, the old adage of "be careful what you wish for" has never been more apt for the people of Northern Ireland.