The Great Firewall breaks Google's will

As the stand-off between Google and China draws on, it’s becoming difficult to see how Google can protect both its business interests and its good name.

Google first announced it would be "reviewing the feasibility" of its business operations in China just over two weeks ago, citing a "highly sophisticated and targeted attack on our corporate infrastructure" originating from Beijing as the reason. In a post on its official blog, the search engine claimed that it had "evidence to suggest that a primary goal of the attackers was accessing the Gmail accounts of Chinese human rights activists".

The obvious implication was that the Chinese government had attempted to hack into the personal affairs of those conspiring against it, and that Google was unwilling to maintain a position as a medium for espionage.

Google also took the opportunity to declare its unwillingness to continue censoring search results on its Chinese-language search engine, stating that it would be "discussing with the Chinese government the basis on which we could operate an unfiltered search engine".

Google’s blog post was met with both criticism and support from around the world, and has prompted a formal complaint from the US government and a pointed speech from US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Concerned Chinese netizens left bunches of flowers outside Google’s Beijing office, although this practice was swiftly curtailed by police.

Two weeks on, and the Chinese government has not only denied the attacks, but has also pointed out US data showing that China was the biggest victim of cyber-attacks in 2009, the majority of which originated from the US. As to accusations of censorship, Beijing released a statement affirming its commitment "to encourage the healthy development and expansion of the internet". Such a response is indicative of the party’s predictable reluctance to allow unfiltered searching.

Now, however, Google is reported to have begun "delicate" reconciliatory talks with the Chinese government, in addition to reinstating its search filters, resulting in confusion amongst analysts. While the fate of its search engine is uncertain, The Press Association reports that Google is seeking to retain its research centre, its fledgling mobile phone business and its lucrative advertising sales team in China.

Having taken a very public moral stand against the Chinese government, Google – which owns roughly 30 percent of the Chinese market share – now faces a choice: pull out, or make a deal.

Economically, Google’s bargaining position is weak. Should it withdraw completely it will win media praise, but such a public denouncement is likely to mean that it will find itself blacklisted in China for a long time. Google must realise that it would be unwise to deny itself future access to a market of 700 million mobile phone users.

Some see Google’s indecisive actions as cynical and hypocritical. A recent edition of the state-run China Daily newspaper commented, "If it is [about human rights], the move should have come much earlier or the Web giant should have never entered the Chinese market in the first place."

Whilst Google wasn’t the only foreign company to suffer the cyber-attack, it stands alone in its protest. The other 33 firms affected have either chosen to accept such issues as a tolerable difficulty when doing business in China, or to keep their negotiations private.

Given the pervasiveness of internet censorship in China, which Beijing stresses is "key to social stability," it is unlikely that Google will convince the censors to allow unrestricted searching. Ultimately, whether or not Google remains in China will depend on its willingness to endure the allegations of hypocrisy that a compromise with Beijing would attract.