General Election: Change for the long-term

Anybody who follows politics and the electoral fortunes of political parties will be well aware of the limited value of opinion polls. Not only do different polls yield different results, even when published on the same day, but the applicability of generalised voting intentions in a first-past-the-post system is at best audacious. Despite being the apparent runaway hero of the first ever televised debate between those who could be the next Prime Minister, Nick Clegg will know that the support of over half those who took part in a poll immediately after the broadcast will not translate into a Lib Dem majority in the next Parliament.

Nonetheless, his performance has gained him a raft of new admirers who will, at the very least, take more notice of Britain’s third party, potentially heightening the chance of the first hung Parliament at Westminster since 1974. In student-heavy Edinburgh South, this could have a manifest effect, Labour’s majority being so slim that even a miniscule swing towards to the Lib Dems would be enough to win them the seat.

As is discussed in this edition of The Journal, the 'Vote for Students' campaign has come to dominate the party’s interaction with the student community. Labour supporters are keen to point out that Neil Hudson, the Conservative Party candidate, is the only potential winner who has refused to confirm his opposition to top-up fees in England. As a senior lecturer at the university’s Dick Vet school, this is likely to have some influence on the votes of those students he teaches, not least because so many hail from south of the border. He owes it to his students to say whether or not he is open to the idea of increasing the debt with which they will graduate should his party form the next government.

It is right that a student body encourage students to vote on those issues that effect their education, particularly at a time when talk of cuts is as common as kisses on baby’s foreheads. However, this does not mean that students can afford to ignore other issues — the economy, immigration and the National Health Service are just as important as fees for students entering the job market. Most students currently at university will have graduated by the time the next sitting of Parliament is over, unless of course there is no majority and another election is called. Those of us who will vote on 6 May should keep those student issues we hold dear at the front of our minds, but also think about the future.

Important as this election is, it is clear that a large minority of students will not vote. Disenfranchisement and anger at the system are real problems, which cannot be overcome in a day. With slightly less than half of 18-24 year olds shunning their opportunity to choose their MP in 2005, those drives to have students and other young adults registered to vote are also welcome, but will not solve the problem. The unrepresentative electoral system and the belief by some that voting achieves very little will take more than an advertising campaign; if democracy in Britain is to return to the esteemed position it once held, major effort will be required. Moves towards proportional representation will help, but it will also be necessary for parties to do more to communicate with individual groups and interests as opposed to the population at large.

Polls will change as will party priorities over the coming fortnight. The television debates will play their role, as will the parties’ ability to communicate with and impress interest groups like students. Whatever change or continuity we see, a lot of work will need to be done to protect student interests, graduate interests and to reengage the public with the political system. Whoever crosses the electoral finishing line on 6 May should consider that elections are not the end of the process; they are only the beginning.