Elastic Miliband

Miliband the Younger has been elected leader of Her Majesty’s Opposition, and the result is a dismal one for anyone seeking a Labour government any time soon. A clear victory for Ed Miliband in the leadership contest would have been acceptable: the Labour Party would have made a dubious decision, but it would have done so with purpose and with their leader’s legitimacy beyond dispute.

Unfortunately, Ed Miliband actually lost the election among both his fellow Labour MPs and with the rank-and-file members of the party. He only managed to reverse this trend by garnering a 60-40 margin in his favour among trade unionists in what was a very low voter turnout. Overall, this meant that he squeezed past his big brother David with a paltry majority of 0.65%.

Even if he had been voted in unanimously, there still would have been cause for concern. It would have always been difficult for him to eclipse both Clegg and Cameron on the Parliamentary stage. As his mandate is questionable that ambition may become impossible; with the coalition undermining any credible criticism of government policy he makes with by highlighting his lack of parliamentary and party member support. Furthermore, the job of forming a united opposition looks like an extremely uninviting task: getting a disenchanted David Miliband to work under you would be a conundrum for any leader, let alone a younger brother. The shadow ministers are to be elected by Miliband's fellow MPs (who voted for David), rather than a direct appointment. He cannot even count on his whip to rally the MPs, as he is also to be elected independently.

As far as consistency goes, he is a man all too quick to wash his hands of policies which he once cherished if he thought it would make Labour members vote for him. his desire to oppose the third runway at Heathrow (after having had responsibility for the policymaking in his previous brief as Environment Secretary), and his plans to oppose spending cuts - which he himself proposed in his 2010 Labour manifesto - account for this. His 'lurch to the left' from what was before the general election a relatively moderate leftist position seems like a well orchestrated stunt of electioneering to outflank his older brother and appeal to the party activist voters. This is made clear by his vague rhetorical promises like his campaigns for a living wage, a policy which he has not even committed to legislation.

Labour leadership campaigns may be won by catering to leftist demands, but general elections are invariably won on the centre ground. With Ed Miliband owing his leadership to the power of the trades union movement, he will have a very tough time indeed trying to keep the unions onside as well as trying to claw any swing voters to his side. If he changes tact and veers towards more centrist policies, he may be accused of inconsistency and lose credibility as a plausible Labour candidate for Prime Minister. If he stays put he should be wary of earning a reputation as an anti-business 'union’s man', a perception which could easily drag Labour into an electoral quagmire.

Any leader after an electoral defeat faces an uphill struggle to revive their party and form the vital role of opposition that any social democracy needs. Burdened by his debt to the unions, Ed Miliband may not be fit for the climb.