Change we can't believe in

Last Tuesday’s midterm results came as a hammer blow to the Democratic Party; it was far from unexpected. Low Democratic poll-ratings had been festering for some time and were bound to translate into significant gains for Republicans in both houses.

The results saw the Republicans seize control of the House of Representatives with 239 seats to the Democrats’ 186, the biggest Republican House majority since 1928. The Democrats just clung onto a majority in the Senate with 52 seats to the Republicans’ 46, and similar losses in races for governorships.

The results clearly reflect widespread voter-disillusionment with the Obama administration. Both his healthcare reform package (‘Obamacare’) and his $787 billion stimulus plan in the past year have been virulently opposed by conservative-minded Americans.

Meanwhile, liberals feel that these policies do not go far enough. President Obama shoulders the blame for a wide range of issues from the poor-handling of the BP oil spill to the sluggish American economy.

If the electorate was seeking significant change in Washington, the new make-up of the legislature will not deliver. New legislation will be characterised by deadlock, horse-trading and cumbersome compromises. Republicans are adamant that they will block all “socialist” intiatives put forward by the Obama administration.

It even seems likely that the Republicans will seek to roll-back the legislative agenda which President Obama has pursued in his first two years in office. Within hours of his re-election Republican Representative John Boehner, soon to be appointed Speaker of the House, publicly denounced ‘Obamacare’ as "a monstrosity".

Mr Obama has always been a proponent of "genuine bi-partisanship", as explored in his 2006 book The Audacity of Hope. Indeed, one of the Mr Obama's first moves after the 2008 general election was to invite eight influential Democrats and Republicans to a White House dinner. He may well seek to present these Democratic-losses as an opportunity to bridge ideological divides and strengthen American unity.

Unfortunately, in reality the enormous ideologically diversity within the American legislature makes bipartisan cooperation very difficult. The divergences in opinion on the role of the federal government that have characterised both Houses since 2008 are likely only to deepen in the wake of these elections. At least 45 Tea Party candidates have been elected to Congress, which will undoubtedly galvanise the religious, libertarian right within the Republican Party.

The verdict of the 2010 midterms is that Americans still want change, but the optimism of 2008 has long-disappeared. President Obama, now lacking a majority in the lower house of Congress, will now find it very difficult to deliver change we can believe in.