A new phase of Scottish politics

Four years ago, in May 2007, an insurgent SNP made Scottish electoral history, pushing Labour to their first Holyrood defeat in the history of the devolved parliament. “It’s time,” sermonised Alex Salmond in party broadcasts. “It’s time for safer communities; time to bring our troops home from Iraq; time for a parliament with real power.”

“It’s time," he announced beneath a ticking clock, “for the SNP”.

And right he was: 2007 was indeed a turning point in Scottish politics, handing the reigns of power to a set of brand new faces.

But with that clock now counting towards 5 May, those SNP faces look somewhat less fresh having spectacularly failed to deliver a referendum on independence. Labour, meanwhile, were supposed to have lost what Salmond called their “divine right to rule Scotland” - but the smart money now is on them clawing it back, meaning Scotland would have to accept another first: in Iain Gray Holyrood would end its streak of first ministers with, at the very least, a modicum of charisma. For the first time since devolution, the choice is between two parties who bear the political scars of governing Scotland.

Elsewhere, the Lib Dems are likely to be firmly and successfully presented by both Labour and the SNP as coalition stooges. The Tories will simply be hoping not to repeat their abysmal Scottish performance of the 2010 Westminster elections.

So that’s it, is it? Actually, it’s far too easy to oversimplify the Holyrood election, forgetting firstly that nearly 150,000 ballots were spoiled in 2007, with voters confused by the use of a single paper for both constituency and regional votes. Secondly, only five of the SNP’s 20-seat gain came from Labour, Lib Dems or the Conservatives. In short, smaller parties got screwed where people failed to realise they could vote for a first-past-the-post MSP, plus a different party under proportional representation. Those smaller parties will certainly be looking to regain some of that ground.

What’s often forgotten is that 2007 it was also, apparently, time to “dump student debt” – a landmark pledge which the SNP had abandoned by November. Public finances look set to be the election’s defining issue, but whether it’s Labour or SNP who win in May, cuts will be on the agenda – and neither party owns a particularly proud record protecting funding of universities or students. Students and student representatives will want to ensure they don’t bear the brunt of the recession; to make sure they don’t find themselves an easy target in the new parliament. Perhaps, then, the choice for students might not be which old faces they want to see in government but, with their second vote, which faces they want keeping a close watch while they’re at it.