Imminent second title for 'Saturday Seb'

Following the early-season hedonism, where we were all swept away with the impact of the new regulations, Formula 1 is beginning to wake up to one whopping hangover. While everyone was focused on the fireworks, Sebastian Vettel quietly built himself a mighty points lead in the championship – one based heavily on unbeatable qualifying pace.

The usual “this-is-the-most-thrilling-season-ever” spiel actually felt genuine in the Spring. However, Vettel’s absence from that drama – which, largely, has taken place a dozen seconds behind him at each circuit – has become increasingly apparent. Nobody expects a repeat of last year’s titanic five-way battle, but Vettel’s rivals have failed to mount any sort of convincing challenge in 2011. Each driver has his own catalogue of misjudgements, tales of tough luck; not Vettel.

Team-mate Mark Webber has suffered the more severe KERS problems of the two Red Bulls, but he has no one but himself to blame for now having failed to convert any of his three pole-positions – let alone his regularly appalling getaways from wherever he starts on the grid.

The Ferrari car is yet again proving to be something of an enigma, capable of all-too-fleeting brilliance amidst otherwise anonymous performances. Running well at the start of races with a heavy fuel-load, the car deteriorates drastically as the fuel burns off – which also explains its qualifying woes. It matters little that Fernando Alonso usually has the measure of team-mate Felipe Massa when both are stuck at the blunt end of the points-positions behind a dawdling Mercedes, with Adrian Sutil periodically taking chunks out of their rear wings.

McLaren have the most to answer for though. Regularly closer to the Red Bull’s pace than they ever were in 2010, they have just as regularly converted an initial advantage into utter defeat. It is no good Jenson Button completing two of the most sensational wins of his career; he frequently qualifies outside the top ten, suffers reliability problems and even had a wheel fall off driving out of the pit-lane at Silverstone. With 25 points for a win these days, a DNF is more disastrous than ever and too often do we see a McLaren, whatever the excuse, drop out before the final round of qualifying.

The problem is that with such a huge points deficit to overturn, Vettel’s rivals are having to make greater gambles on strategy and setup – gambles which have mostly backfired so far. Webber and Hamilton both lost serious ground by being on the wrong tyres in Hungary whilst Vettel cruised around safely to pick up another podium. Alonso had a similar problem in Belgium, whilst Hamilton admitted his lack of straight-line speed at the same race would have crippled him, even had he not driven off the road.

After Canada, where Vettel was passed for the lead on the final lap by a supreme Button, we all desperately jumped to the conclusion that the reigning champion had finally cracked. In reality though, only one man gained more points that day than Vettel, who did nothing more dramatic than run wide on that final lap; no big accident, 18 points in the bag.

Ultimately the only way to dislodge Vettel is through qualifying. If he is allowed the front row at every race he will remain as serene as he has been all season and he will coast to a second title. If his rivals can beat him back onto the third row here and there, he won’t be able to avoid that which they have all themselves suffered at some point this season – the toil and misfortune that comes with being in the thick of the midfield.

For now though, while all the pretenders are fighting their own cars as well as their opponents’ – tripping over every slight obstacle – the champion has eyes only for the clear road ahead. It will require something truly seismic to knock Sebastian Vettel off course.