Predicting 2012 in technology

In 1900, John Watkins, an American engineer, imagined what life would be like in 2000. He speculated that "Wireless telephone and telegraph circuits will span the world” and "Man will see around the world.

"Persons and things of all kinds will be brought within focus of cameras connected electrically with screens at opposite ends of circuits, thousands of miles at a span."

Mobile phones and television anyone? Unfortunately, he also predicted that "There will be no C, X or Q in our everyday alphabet. They will be abandoned because unnecessary". Learly a bit of a uak then.

In this post-2000 world still clinging desperately to the letter C, alongside Indiana Jones and Wallace and Gromit on the telly again, a reliable indicator that a new year is imminent is the barrage of technology predictions appearing in the media. Simply Google ‘tech predictions 2012' to find hundreds of conjectures by everyone from the anorak next door to technology editors of national newspapers.

Being a computer scientist, I closely follow emerging technology and take a keen interested in these annual predictions. Most popular predictions this year are:

1) Apple will unveil the 'iTV', their take on Television;
2) The Kindle Fire (a potential iPad competitor) will launch in the UK;
3) YouView, an internet-connected digital TV box, will make its appearance.

I do not consider these real predictions. Even my mum has heard the rumours that Apple will bring out a TV this year. Furthermore, the existence of a technology does not imply the adoption of it. As an example, consider the much-hyped Google+. If you haven't heard of it, I rest my case (it is Google's latest rival to Facebook, by the way). If you have, consider that all of my Computer Science colleagues use it, but not one of my 'other' friends have started using it.

And my predictions? Oh, go on then...

1) A massive increase in mobile malware. We have grown used to computer viruses crippling our machines and invest heavily in anti-virus software and know not to open suspicious attachments or websites. However, given the ubiquity and ever-increasing usage of smartphones, we are likely to see the first viruses affecting mobiles on a large scale. Google’s Android operating system alone had over 1,000 new instances of malware in 2011 and I think this is going to increase rapidly. Combine this with the growth of mobile apps to a billion dollar industry, and the opportunity for profit from infection is huge. I wouldn’t recommend battening down the hatches just yet though, but simply apply equal caution to what websites you open and apps you download on your phone as well as your PC.

2) People will ditch their desktops and laptops and feed the inexorable rise of the Tablet. For me this is a no-brainer: most people want to search the web, use Facebook, email, instant messaging, create documents and spreadsheets. Tablets like the iPad and some of its cheaper Android-based relatives deliver all these and much more. Angry Birds for instance. Plus, you don’t need to wait 20 minutes for Windows to load up. The simple fact is that, for most everyday purposes, a PC is overkill.

3) And, of course, the end of the world on 21st December 2012.

Well that last is not mine. Let’s see how I fare should the Mayans have it wrong.