Students at the heart of the system? Ultimately, it is the minister who chooses

The dust has yet to settle on this year’s UCAS applications, the first to involve students under the new fees regime. The data released by UCAS tells us about applications received by different universities, and for different subject areas, but we will only get the final picture when students confirm their places. The headline figures are striking with an 8.5 per cent drop in applications to institutions in England, while applications in Scotland remain relatively unchanged. Applications from school leavers do not seem to have reduced very significantly, whilst those from mature applicants have fallen considerably, with an 11.8 per cent decline in applications from those aged over 19.

There is a small decline in applications from the poorest 20 per cent of the population (-2.5 per cent against an annual trend over the last few years of an increase of 0.5-3.0 per cent). These changes are not as dramatic as many had predicted, especially when the comparison is with 2011, a year that saw increased applications to beat the fee rises. As such, they have been received with a certain degree of satisfaction by David Willetts, the minister responsible for universities and equanimity by vice-chancellors.

Nonetheless, there are reasons to think that things are less stable beneath the surface. There are very significant shifts in applications to particular subjects with very considerable falls in applications to creative arts, humanities and some social sciences. The former is down by 21.5 per cent, while applications to social sciences are down by 11 per cent. Data is not routinely available for subjects at individual institutions, but the variation is yet greater with reports of falls of 50 per cent and more in particular subjects. Together with the operation of the new ‘core and margin’ system, this indicates the possibility of considerable turbulence across the sector.

AAB+ students are now outside the ‘core’ allocation and institutions can recruit as many students as they wish at this level. At the same time, institutions who fail to recruit their previous quota of AAB+ students cannot fill their places with less qualified students. Equally, we can expect the ‘clearing’ process not only to involve students who have failed to make their offer, but also students who exceeded their own expectations and can ‘upgrade’ to other institutions.

Why might this matter for students? Existing staffing levels to teach courses have been determined under the old system. If there is a significant redistribution of numbers across different degree programmes this will put a strain on departments with increased numbers and a different pressure on departments where numbers have fallen. In the former, there will be increased reliance on temporary and casual staff because universities will likely wish to wait for the system to stabilise before making decisions to invest in new permanent staff. However, where numbers have fallen, universities will begin the process of review and restructuring leading to course closures and likely redundancies. 

The minister wishes to ensure that students choose to pay more for less at institutions charging lower fees. The government withdrew the Higher Education Bill that was designed to facilitate the entry of for-profits, but expect them to find other ways to do so.