Poll shows swing in favour of independence
Alex Salmond
The Scottish National Party’s fight for independence received a timely boost last month, when a poll commissioned by the Sunday Herald found more Scots are in favour of a break up of the union than are against.
In the TNS System Three poll, 41% of Scots questioned favoured the Scottish Government negotiating an independence settlement with Westminster, compared to 40% against. This is one of a very small number of surveys that position support for independence ahead of support for the union.
In previous TNS polls, conducted in August and November 2007, support for independence has stood below that of the status quo. In their first survey, 50% of respondents did not agree with Scottish Independence, compared with 35% who did.
Scottish political commentators have put the change down to a strong period of successful governance by the SNP since their election victory in May 2007. Such success in power is a central pillar of the SNP’s attempts to win over the Scottish people to the thought of independence.
TNS managing director Chris Eynon said: "This represents a very dramatic turnaround over the period of eight months since August 2007. The poll suggests that, based on the SNP's performance in power since the May election, public confidence in the ability of Scotland to run its own affairs as an independent state has increased."
First minister Alex Salmond said: "The poll is further and dramatic evidence that as the SNP delivers good government in the devolved areas, so support for Scotland to be governed equally well in all areas with independence is surging. And the poll clearly indicates that Westminster attempts to bully Scotland and the Scottish Government is also boosting support for equality for Scotland, and a parliament with full powers.
"People want a government that will speak up for Scotland - not shut up for London. It is a tremendous boost for the SNP in the run up to our conference - it will have our opponents choking on their cornflakes."
Comedienne Elaine C. Smith, who convenes the SNP’s Independence Convention said: "This poll is welcome, but the support for independence is something we have known about for some time. The Scottish people must now have their right to speak in a referendum."
Conventional wisdom has long suggested that, should a referendum be called, Scots would ultimately vote against it, with many independent surveys suggesting barely more than a quarter of the population supports a break-away.
Whilst this poll is encouraging for the SNP, it still lacks the parliamentary majority to call a popular vote. The Scottish Government currently face staunch opposition from Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.
Labour MSP Jackie Baillie said: "There is no doubt that the vast majority of Scots don't want an end to the Union, and the SNP are well aware of that. Scots want to walk tall in the Union, not walk out."
TNS polled 977 respondents between 26 March and 4 April.
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